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Pakistan is not the only state facing insurgencies in South Asia, insurgencies in other states pale into insignificance
Dr. Javid Iqbal
Brass-Tacks is a private and independent Pakistani Think-Tank and Defense Analysis Consulting Group, specializing in groundbreaking, cutting-edge Research on regional and international political, economic and national-security issues. The Think-Tank has come up with an interesting study of hues and dynamics of insurgencies in Pakistan. The insurgent groups are broadly classified as religious and secular, although the ones projecting religion are branded as having a religious façade.
Secular insurgency might sound far fetched, but then it needs to be kept in view that Pakistan is a theocratic state, in spite of the fact that having got his Pakistan, the founding father of the state—Mohammad Ali Jinnah declared that state would provide a level playing field for people of all religious hues—words to that effect, if not the exact quote.
The foreign agencies alleged to be inspiring insurgency in Pakistan are India’s RAW, Afghan RAMA and American CIA. How have the three disparate agencies developed a common stake in undermining Pakistan’s security would need a lot of telling. If this charge has any substantiation, the combine could pose geopolitical challenges with Pakistan remaining besieged on its western and eastern border…a tough undertaking. We may first look at the insurgencies with religious façade.
These insurgent forces operate in federal administered territories [FATA] South Waziristan and had the entire Swat valley in their control some year’s back. In Swat 2.5 million people had to be shifted in order to clear the area larger than England for army to take the insurgents head on. Though the area was cleared, the insurgency in FATA and South Waziristan largely checked, it is far from over.
As the study reveals insurgent are waging a ruthless, decentralized war against the State as well as the civilian population in the mainland, urban environment. In the last 3 years alone, on the average, Pakistan has suffered a suicide attack, a bomb explosion, or an attack on the security forces, almost on daily basis. Hundreds of the officers and soldiers, as well as thousands of civilians have given their lives in a war, which has cast a staggering toll on Pakistan’s economy and society. Even GHQ was attacked for an audacious attempt at targeting military leadership.
The organization in the forefront of insurgency is Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP]. No urban landmark seemed to be beyond their reach including cantonments, hospitals and mosques. But then the army began to put a clamp on this new form of what is now called 4th generation war. Pakistan army, it is said was not initially trained for this kind of warfare mentally, emotionally, militarily or logistically. Despite the lack of any previous experience to fight such a war, Pakistan army broke the back of the insurgency in Swat, capturing the South Waziristan bastion of the terrorists and taking back almost all regions of FATA, which were previously under the terrorists’ control. However, it’s not over yet and the war continues in remote tribal regions as well as in the cities where insurgents regularly cause chaos, assassinations and bomb attacks.
The study claims that the centre of gravity for the terrorists is in Afghanistan from where they get their weapons and money. It is made out that so far Pakistan has been fighting a reactive war within its own borders and has left the safe havens of the insurgents untouched inside Afghanistan.
Incidentally contrary to the claims of this study, Afghan regime repeatedly charges Pakistan with backing Tahreek-e-Taliban Afghanistan and calls Afghan religious insurgency ISI backed. Americans remain in hunt of Al-Qaida insurgents in Pakistani territory. Drone attacks have not ceased, withstanding Pakistani protests. Though America claims to be mainly after Al-Qaida, it is difficult to differentiate between different forms albeit same stream of insurgency of insurgency, driven by a matching ideology. Given the background, it is difficult to draw a distinction between Al-Qaida and TTP.
The secular insurgencies in the said study include the insurgency in Baluchistan and the armed wings of Muhajir Quami Movement [MQM] of urban Sindh and Awami National Party [ANP] of NWFP. MQM and ANP armed wings have been held in check by making them partners in governance of Sindh and NWFP. The mode of operations of Baluch insurgents against the State includes blowing up gas pipelines, destroying power cables and State infrastructures as well as attacking security forces and assassinating non-Baluch settlers from the rest of the country. Yet again, the study alleges CIA, RAW and Afghan RAMA stirring up another insurgency in secular garb. However it is taken as insurgency of lower intensity and backed by a smaller section of Baluchis. Though Baluchistan constitutes 42% area of Pakistan, it comprises of only 4% of population divided between Pashtuns, Baluchis, Makranis, Brahwis and Sindhis.
MQM and ANP, it is alleged are waging a ruthless and brutal war of assassinations and counter assassinations on the streets of Karachi. Both MQM and ANP are believed to be close to India and as per the study are alleged to reject the creation of Pakistan as a State and have dismissed the Islamic ideology of Pakistan. ANP given its past is highly suspicious. In the past the party has been accused of conspiring against the state. Indian links apart, it is also believed to be close to Afghan establishment. MQM though the party of migrants from India seems to hold grudges against the habitants of the country they migrated to.
Whatever the contours of this study, certain things stand out. Pakistan is not the only state facing insurgencies in South Asia, though in the present time phase compared to Pakistan, insurgencies in other South Asian states pale into insignificance. However during past few decades, India and Sri Lanka have had intense levels of insurgency. As the Pakistani study makes out that the insurgency is inspired by intelligence agencies of neighboring states, India and Sri Lanka had similar complaints. Indian charges against state agencies and non-state players in Pakistan persist. However the regional countries have made no worthwhile attempts to evolve a regional mechanism for checking extremist tendencies. Nor is there a regional mechanism in operation to resolve disputes between South Asian states in the regional organization—SAARC. What should have been a ideal agency for settling disputes is on the contrary barred from even putting such disputes on its agenda.
Yaar Zinda Sohbat Baqi
Pakistan: Hues & Dynamics of Insurgencies
Pakistan: Hues & Dynamics of Insurgencies
Dr. Javid Iqbal
Brass-Tacks is a private and independent Pakistani Think-Tank and Defense Analysis Consulting Group, specializing in groundbreaking, cutting-edge Research on regional and international political, economic and national-security issues. The Think-Tank has come up with an interesting study of hues and dynamics of insurgencies in Pakistan. The insurgent groups are broadly classified as religious and secular, although the ones projecting religion are branded as having a religious façade.
Secular insurgency might sound far fetched, but then it needs to be kept in view that Pakistan is a theocratic state, in spite of the fact that having got his Pakistan, the founding father of the state—Mohammad Ali Jinnah declared that state would provide a level playing field for people of all religious hues—words to that effect, if not the exact quote.
The foreign agencies alleged to be inspiring insurgency in Pakistan are India’s RAW, Afghan RAMA and American CIA. How have the three disparate agencies developed a common stake in undermining Pakistan’s security would need a lot of telling. If this charge has any substantiation, the combine could pose geopolitical challenges with Pakistan remaining besieged on its western and eastern border…a tough undertaking. We may first look at the insurgencies with religious façade.
These insurgent forces operate in federal administered territories [FATA] South Waziristan and had the entire Swat valley in their control some year’s back. In Swat 2.5 million people had to be shifted in order to clear the area larger than England for army to take the insurgents head on. Though the area was cleared, the insurgency in FATA and South Waziristan largely checked, it is far from over.
As the study reveals insurgent are waging a ruthless, decentralized war against the State as well as the civilian population in the mainland, urban environment. In the last 3 years alone, on the average, Pakistan has suffered a suicide attack, a bomb explosion, or an attack on the security forces, almost on daily basis. Hundreds of the officers and soldiers, as well as thousands of civilians have given their lives in a war, which has cast a staggering toll on Pakistan’s economy and society. Even GHQ was attacked for an audacious attempt at targeting military leadership.
The organization in the forefront of insurgency is Tahreek-e-Taliban Pakistan [TTP]. No urban landmark seemed to be beyond their reach including cantonments, hospitals and mosques. But then the army began to put a clamp on this new form of what is now called 4th generation war. Pakistan army, it is said was not initially trained for this kind of warfare mentally, emotionally, militarily or logistically. Despite the lack of any previous experience to fight such a war, Pakistan army broke the back of the insurgency in Swat, capturing the South Waziristan bastion of the terrorists and taking back almost all regions of FATA, which were previously under the terrorists’ control. However, it’s not over yet and the war continues in remote tribal regions as well as in the cities where insurgents regularly cause chaos, assassinations and bomb attacks.
The study claims that the centre of gravity for the terrorists is in Afghanistan from where they get their weapons and money. It is made out that so far Pakistan has been fighting a reactive war within its own borders and has left the safe havens of the insurgents untouched inside Afghanistan.
Incidentally contrary to the claims of this study, Afghan regime repeatedly charges Pakistan with backing Tahreek-e-Taliban Afghanistan and calls Afghan religious insurgency ISI backed. Americans remain in hunt of Al-Qaida insurgents in Pakistani territory. Drone attacks have not ceased, withstanding Pakistani protests. Though America claims to be mainly after Al-Qaida, it is difficult to differentiate between different forms albeit same stream of insurgency of insurgency, driven by a matching ideology. Given the background, it is difficult to draw a distinction between Al-Qaida and TTP.
The secular insurgencies in the said study include the insurgency in Baluchistan and the armed wings of Muhajir Quami Movement [MQM] of urban Sindh and Awami National Party [ANP] of NWFP. MQM and ANP armed wings have been held in check by making them partners in governance of Sindh and NWFP. The mode of operations of Baluch insurgents against the State includes blowing up gas pipelines, destroying power cables and State infrastructures as well as attacking security forces and assassinating non-Baluch settlers from the rest of the country. Yet again, the study alleges CIA, RAW and Afghan RAMA stirring up another insurgency in secular garb. However it is taken as insurgency of lower intensity and backed by a smaller section of Baluchis. Though Baluchistan constitutes 42% area of Pakistan, it comprises of only 4% of population divided between Pashtuns, Baluchis, Makranis, Brahwis and Sindhis.
MQM and ANP, it is alleged are waging a ruthless and brutal war of assassinations and counter assassinations on the streets of Karachi. Both MQM and ANP are believed to be close to India and as per the study are alleged to reject the creation of Pakistan as a State and have dismissed the Islamic ideology of Pakistan. ANP given its past is highly suspicious. In the past the party has been accused of conspiring against the state. Indian links apart, it is also believed to be close to Afghan establishment. MQM though the party of migrants from India seems to hold grudges against the habitants of the country they migrated to.
Whatever the contours of this study, certain things stand out. Pakistan is not the only state facing insurgencies in South Asia, though in the present time phase compared to Pakistan, insurgencies in other South Asian states pale into insignificance. However during past few decades, India and Sri Lanka have had intense levels of insurgency. As the Pakistani study makes out that the insurgency is inspired by intelligence agencies of neighboring states, India and Sri Lanka had similar complaints. Indian charges against state agencies and non-state players in Pakistan persist. However the regional countries have made no worthwhile attempts to evolve a regional mechanism for checking extremist tendencies. Nor is there a regional mechanism in operation to resolve disputes between South Asian states in the regional organization—SAARC. What should have been a ideal agency for settling disputes is on the contrary barred from even putting such disputes on its agenda.
Yaar Zinda Sohbat Baqi
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