For those tempted to see Pakistani politics as an unending revenge
tragedy, this was merely the next act. Mr Musharraf, who ruled Pakistan
for nine years after the coup and then went into exile after being
defeated in elections, was guilty of hubris in returning to his homeland
in February with the hope of getting back into power, this time through
the ballot box. Mr Sharif, himself forced into exile by Mr Musharraf,
was the agent of nemesis. And who could say with any certainty that the
malign chain of events would end there? The first dire act in this
drama, after all, was the hanging of the hugely popular Prime Minister,
Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, by army chief and dictator Zia ul-Haq. How bitterly
appropriate – how satisfactory in dramatic terms – if an elected
premier should now turn the tables.
But although Article 6 of
Pakistan’s constitution allows for the execution of a person guilty of
high treason, that is an unlikely outcome. Unlike certain other Islamic
countries, there have been few cases of capital punishment in Pakistan
in recent years. And the real import of yesterday’s announcement is that
Pakistan is moving in a significant and hopeful new direction.
The
key figure in that positive movement is neither Mr Sharif nor Mr
Musharraf but General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the army chief of staff, who
declared back in 2008 that the army would stay out of politics and who
has kept that promise. General Kayani strongly urged Mr Musharraf to
remain in exile, avoided army interference in the recent elections, and
has been rewarded by witnessing the first democratic transfer of power
in Pakistani history.
If Mr Musharraf does go on trial, it is
reasonable to expect that General Kayani will remain equally phlegmatic.
Voices of protest from inside the military may make life uncomfortable
for him, but aside from the constitutional justness of putting the
former dictator on trial, General Kayani may profit from a sense within
the army that Mr Musharraf conceded far too much to the US in the war on
terror. And if Mr Musharraf is duly found guilty, that will be almost
as important a precedent for Pakistan as the success of the recent
elections. It will put an important new obstacle in the way of any
future Musharraf dreaming of a coup d’etat.
The importance of
such a development – of a relationship between the government and the
army in which there is for the first time a modicum of trust – was
underlined by the appalling terrorist crime at the weekend in which
militants belonging to the Pakistani Taliban killed nine foreign
climbers in the Himalayas. A Taliban spokesman claimed that this was
their way of protesting against deaths from American drone attacks. The
impact will be keenly felt in Pakistan, delivering a disastrous blow to
the last surviving element of the tourist industry, and throwing its
vital relations with China into crisis. More than ever Pakistan needs
its elected representatives and its military to work in concert. A sober
and successful prosecution of Mr Musharraf will greatly improve the
chances of that.
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