Monday, January 3, 2011
Road to Ghazwa e Hind - The real possibility and scenario of a major nuclear war between Pakistan and India involving all major civilizations
Important Introduction Note:
The assassination of one man in Bavaria started the First World War which killed over 10 million. The rise to power of one dictator in Germany initiates the Second World War which killed 30 million more. And those were conventional wars fought with first generation planes, tanks and machine guns. War is a genetically inbuilt human civilizational inevitability and cannot be eliminated either from the present or from the future. One can prepare for it only.
As history has taught us on numerous occasions that no nation has ever suffered or regretted preparing for a war. On the contrary those who have neglected the war preparations according to technology and threats of their time have paid terrible prices. The next war on civilizational axis is inevitable. Only the time frame can be argued. That would also not be a conventional war and would not also limit itself to war zones or battle lines. There would not be any neutrals nor be any victors – just survivors. The winner would be the one who succeed to survive the holocaust, during and after.
There can be no nuclear doctrine in any nuclear armed country which does not account for Survivability. Survival of civilian population, survival of strategic food and fuel assets, survival of strategic military and economic assets, survival of delivery mechanism for second strike options and above all survival of national will to rise from the ashes and rebuild again, fending off the scavenger civilizations who would be pouring in from all directions to take advantage of the national calamity. The nuclear guide book without the chapter on survival is flawed, defective and should be relegated to trash bin.
Pakistan has yet to take even the first basic steps in the direction of National Survival strategy. By not preparing for a nuclear exchange and fallout scenario NOW, our leaders, military planners and strategists would be making a suicidal mistake which would not just cost tens of millions of lives but would also reduce the country to stone age, incapable to survive the inevitable. It can be done now when we have the fiscal space and economic resources to plough back into national survival strategy on war footings. Each passing day is closing the window for us.
Under the already emerged scenario of Indian 4GW and the Cold Start doctrine, this paper is a “worst case” analysis and an attempt to predict the possible flow of events in not so far future in near realistic environments based on current global and regional conflict development trends and fault lines. And to warn the national leadership about the future as seen from the prism of today’s regional dynamics. Even if our threat assessment, scenario analysis or time line is argued by other pundits, Pakistan can only benefit and gain by preparing for such a scenario for which almost all nuclear powered countries (and other wise nations) are either already prepared or preparing fast.
Under the Cold Start or any future Pak-India high intensity war, which can be triggered under any pretext, it would be impossible to keep the conflict bilateral or even conventional. Events can radically get out of control with catastrophic fallouts for the region and the world. Indian government and the military are increasingly getting more radical with penetration of “Saffron” ideology of Hindu Zionism. Fascist groups like RSS, VHP and Bajrang Dal, led by terrorists of the likes Bal Thakrey have penetrated the mainstream Indian political parties of BJP and Congress as well as Indian military establishment. The fascist radicalization of Indian military and their political leadership has made India the most dangerous nuclear armed country in the region with declared goals of annihilating Muslims and Pakistan from the region. Whether we like it or not, a final conflict with India is inevitable. It can be delayed or postponed but not avoided. In Muslim history and holy scriptures and in the sayings of the Holy Prophet (sm), this final conflict is called “Ghazwa e Hind”, the final war for India!. India will start this war. Pakistan will finish it, Inshallah!
The Environment: The year is 2014.
A patriotic and honorable government is in place in Islamabad which took over in 2010 after a judicial and military coup which removed a corrupt and incompetent regime which had brought the country on the brink of disaster. For the last 4 years, the present government had managed to control the collapse of economy, had reduced corruption radically and had contained the terrorism to make Pakistan a reasonably stable and strong nation within the Muslim world.
The world was in turmoil all around Pakistan but Pakistani nation had managed to keep the nation stable and strong. Kashmir dispute was still simmering and Afghanistan had remained in a delicate state without any strong government and with multiple militias controlling the countryside. There was also strong presence of western forces in Northern regions.
United States and Israel have successfully over run the entire ME, creating various headless states and smaller principalities or weak client Satellite States in the Muslim heartland in place of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordon. Israel have annexed the entire Palestinian lands and have even started constructing colonies and settlements into Jordon, Lebanon, Syria and Egypt even extending into parts of Saudi Arabia near Tabuk. The entire Gulf region has become an effective US colony with major US bases spread across the entire region having force projection capability into South Asia, Central Asia and South West China. The entire fuel assets and fuel routes from the Gulf and Central Asia are under US and coalition control.
But there are pockets of fierce resistance in every part of occupied ME. Muslim resistance groups and militants have launched massive war of resistance against US presence in the Muslim lands and are proving to be elusive and deadly foes for the US forces. Afghan resistance remains fierce, still bogging down US and NATO occupation forces even after 13 years of occupation. Pakistan had cut down the supply lines of NATO and NATO was forced to find long and expensive routes from Central Asia and via Iran.
US economy was collapsing at home. Dollar has been abandoned as a currency and a new political alliance of North American Union consisting of Mexico, USA and Canada has come into existence on the pattern of EU with plans for a new currency Amero being floated. In dollar terms, US cost of occupation is staggering $20 bn a month with hundreds of casualties in dead and wounded every month. The situation is not stabilizing despite massive injection of US military and economic resources in the region. The quality of life in occupied Muslim lands is getting hopelessly desperate creating an explosive environment for US forces present amongst hostile population. Terrorism in the US mainland and Europe has forced radical security measures against local Muslim population and a mass migration of Muslim immigrants begin flowing back to the native lands due to fears of persecution in Europe and America. Tension between the West and Islam are at all time high since the crusades in the 10th century.
There is also serious friction building between Russia and United States particularly over establishment of anti-ballistic missile shield by NATO in Eastern Europe and distribution of fuel resources of Caspian and for control of vast economic and military assets in Central Asia. Tensions are running high between US backed Georgia and Russia while the US backed Chechens are also taking advantage of Russian weaknesses to launch even more daring raids into Russian mainland. Tension between Turkish and Russian forces flare up when a group of fleeing Chechens enter Turkey and Russians enter into hot pursuit. Even though Turkey is rediscovering its Islamic identity and is drawing away from NATO, still, NATO threatens to side with Turkey in the standoff and ask Russians to back off. Skirmishes threaten to begin on the European front.
The US economy and military is under tremendous stress. The domestic budget deficit has grown at staggering 2 trillion dollars. Inflation is 12 percent, local jobless figures is at 14 million. The mass migration of millions of skilled Muslims has created a serious crisis of production and growth in industry and economy. Industrial produce have gone down 40% and market shares lost to powerful emerging economies of China, Far east and India. Global warming, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes and snow storms have damaged over 1 trillion dollars of economic infrastructure in just 2 years. US forces are spread thin all over the globe – at least 3 quarters of a million troops in 120 countries and lands.
There is nervousness and panic in US government. The security of fuel assets and fuel routes has not produced the desired response in mainland for economic turnaround. Then a group of local white Supremacist militia of a doomsday cult, fed up with the policies of US government launches a devastating attack on US power and communication infrastructure crippling the economy to the tune of many trillion dollars in over a week. From nervousness, the situation becomes desperate for US government. US media, under the influence of AIPAC, the Israeli lobby, starts a massive global propaganda that attack on US infrastructure has come from Muslim extremists based in ME and Pak-Afghan region.
In trade talks with China, US insist that China reduce duties on US products, strengthen Yuan and stop influencing economic spheres in Far East and Asia. US threaten to stop Chinese oil supplies from Gulf, unless China stops given subsidy to Chinese goods in Asia and European markets to make way for Americans products. China threatens to abandon dollar in international trade and starts dumping from its reserves of over a trillion dollar foreign exchange. US economy takes fatal dive as dollar collapses in international forex market as all countries start to make switch to Gold or other currencies.
Tensions quickly flare and talks break down. US intercept bulk oil cargo ships from Gulf carrying oil for China. China threatens to use force and begin war games in Taiwanese straits. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan feel intimidated and ask US to interfere after failing to convince China. Tensions rapidly flare up around the Korean Peninsula also as a North Korean Destroyer is sunk by South Korean mine. Chinese war games are taken as hostile by US and Pacific fleet is mobilized to counter rapidly building Chinese military presence in the region. Chinese vice Premier visits Uighur autonomous region and is assassinated by a US backed Uighur separatist group. China demands extradition of groups’ leader from US. US refuse to hand over the suspect and situation becomes critical between US and China in Asia.
Pakistan and India almost maintain their present status quo in bilateral relations in 2014. Kashmir remains a sore issue and even though the militancy in valley has died down considerably, the clashes along the LoC and working boundary are a routine. India has made progress in leaps and bounds in economic and military spheres and continues to pose serious challenges to Pakistan in both spheres but the nuke deterrent maintains a credible balance despite very bad terms between the two countries.
India is the main ally and military beneficiary from US. US have cultivated India to act as counter balance against China in case of US-China conflict scenario and to counter balance Pakistan for fear of an ‘Islamic” nuclear threat. Though, India had used the US military and economic dependence upon Delhi to build its own military potential as a regional civilization capable of challenging even China and US independently, its own desires were not to take sides in any US-China conflict and had decided to play a game of waiting to see which civilization survives or weakens to allow the breakout of Hindu civilization in Asia. India had given military bases to US for operations in East Asia but had not committed to fight alongside US against China. US were concerned at this arrangement.
But within India, Naxalite Maoists, backed by China had become the greatest internal security challenge for the Indian federation, over running almost 40% of India in the “Red Corridor”. Indian army was fighting a losing war against the Maoists in the think jungles of rural India. Sikhs movement had gained momentum. In the seven sister states in East, rebellions were already simmering at high levels putting extreme pressure on the Indian federation.
Despite the serious frictions between Pakistan and US/NATO alliance over Afghanistan, Pakistan was constructively engaged with US and the West. Pakistan also remained a close friend of China and could not be trusted by US in a US-China conflict scenario. Even though there was no visible Chinese military presence on Pakistani soil, the proximity of Pakistan and China and their close ties was a matter of serious concern for US. Also, China had provided Pakistan with nuclear technology and long range anti-Ship missiles which gave Pakistan the ability to choke all the fuel supplies and shipping from the Gulf if US flotilla decides to take battle station close to Chinese mainland. Also, Chinese presence in Gawader was spying on US in the Gulf. Pakistan was an unreliable country from US perspective.
US intelligence sources had predicted in 1998 that China would take at least till 2020 to be able to develop enough force projection capability to match US military presence in Asia an to threaten US mainland in case of a nuke exchange. In 1998, Chinese were overwhelmingly inferior to US in space and satellite warfare, Fighter air crafts, reconnaissance and surveillance, Communications, missile defense, Naval force projection capability and survival capability in an NBC warfare environment.
But in 2002, Russia entered into a strategic defense alliance with China to transfer Russian high technology military knowledge of Fighter aircrafts, missile defense and space warfare to China and the collaboration rapidly polished off a decade of Chinese research and development. Americans had revised their estimates in 2004 and had then predicted that Chinese would have requisite force projection and survival capability against a massive US unconventional strike by 2015. US military commanders had sent a summary to White House in 2004 that if China reaches the threshold of its capability to not just strike the US mainland but also survive a massive counter strike by US, then it would become almost impossible to eliminate the Chinese threat to US interests in the 21st century within the acceptable cost and collateral damage. US had already devised a strategy to hit Chinese Asian interests before China could cross that red line and become a serious unmanageable threat to US.
Provoked by the domestic economic meltdown due to collapse of US dollar, Chinese stubbornness to concede grounds in trade talks and threatened by radical development of Chinese capability to strike at US Space assets and the mainland, US was already contemplating plans to hit China first with a massive nuke strike on the Chinese mainland.
Almost at the same time, BJP was ruling India with hardliners from RSS virtually controlling the Indian State through their Prime Minister Narender Modi, the butcher of Gujarat. Col: Prohit, the notorious Indian military intelligence officer responsible for Samjhota express blasts and known for his links with Hindu Saffron brigades had been released by the courts for want of evidence and was now serving as the head of Pakistan Desk in Indian secret service RAW.
Indian Cabinet was meeting in Delhi. A group of 6 Naxalite Maoists stealthily sneaked into the parliament and open fire killing over 100 people from government, security forces and media. BJP immediately puts the blame on Kashmiri groups and blame ISI and Pakistan. Indian cabinet orders mobilization of Indian forces. Under the Cold Start doctrine, independent Battle groups (IBG’s) of Indian army was secretly old to warm up for an immediate invasion, while the India launched a massive global diplomatic and media campaign to isolate Pakistan. On the surface, Indians kept the crisis on diplomatic and media plains and sent high level delegations to Islamabad for negotiations giving perception to Pakistan that crisis can be resolved diplomatically but on the ground, the invasion was ordered within 24 hours when Indian delegation return back to Delhi.
The Armageddon is about to begin……
Day 1 minus 1:
In Washington, emergency war council meeting in White House headed by US President and attended by amongst many others by Commanders of Central Command (CentCom), USEUCOM and Pacific Command (USPACOM). Few crisis issues were hotly debated:
• US forces were too thinned in ME and Asia for a concentrated force projection against China. Carrier battle groups were too vulnerable to Chinese missiles. With serious crisis also building in Western Europe, substantial US forces from Europe could not be moved to Asian theatres.
• US did not have any close proximity military base to China in Asia. Diego Garcia and Australia were too far. ME bases were too far also. South Korea too close for military significance and survival. Philippines, Taiwan, Pakistan and India were the closest options.
• The thinning of US forces, vulnerability of Carrier battle groups and non-availability of close proximity military bases left the options of long range ballistic missiles with decisive and ruthless strike against Chinese mainland for swift, total and devastating destruction of Chinese military and economic potential to launch any retaliatory strike against US mainland and US forces in Asia. US planned to launch an initial strike of 30 low to high yield tactical nuke ballistic missiles in the first wave and second wave of 20 missiles after initial damage assessment within 12 hours. Chinese casualties were estimated to be close to 100 million killed in first wave and over 400 million wounded or radiation exposed. The second wave was supposed to take out any remaining survivors or military infrastructure within the East, Mid and Northern Chinese region. Total Chinese casualties expected to cross almost half the population.
• Once the question of Chinese engagement strategy was resolved, the attention was turned towards Chinese allies, especially Russia, North Korea and Pakistan. Russia was not deemed a nuke threat and North Korea was already taken out in the initial wave. Pakistan remained the core issue for US command in their war against China.
• It was decided in the meeting that US would ask Pakistan to side against China in the war. In case Pakistan refuse, neutrality would not be trusted or accepted and Pakistan would be treated as an enemy State to be taken out on day one to avoid advantage to Chinese. But to very close proximity of Pakistan to India, US bases in Gulf and Central Asia created the dilemma for US commanders. Any high yield nuke strike on Pakistan would create serious blast and fallout effects which would have very serious consequences for US interests, assets, troops and war capability in India, ME and Gulf. Pakistan had to be taken out using very low yield nuke strike at selected places combined with massive conventional strikes against defense and economic infrastructure for total incapacitation to contribute any share in defense of China or to harm US interests.
• News of Indian mobilization against Pakistan surprised both US and China. Another nuclear war in the region was now inevitable. China was already mobilizing against possible US hostile military action. Indian moves against Pakistan threatened Chinese interests gravely. US could not get involved to diffuse tensions between Pakistan and India due to its own rapidly building crisis with China. Pakistan had also started its mobilization rapidly as Indian IBG (independent battle groups) menacingly threatened to cross the border. Sensing hostile intent of India and the fact that US could not be trusted, Pakistan urgently requests China to get involved.
• An unexpected Chinese warning to India had taken both US and India by surprise. Sensing Indian moods to act as US proxy and to attack Pakistan, China had warned India not to act as a staging post for US strikes on Chinese mainland or on to Pakistan. Any such act according to Chinese would be taken as a hostile act and India would be ruthlessly targeted by China. Despite strong US assurances to Delhi over incapability of China to strike India after US first strikes, India refused to openly side with US in the war. It was however agreed that India would maintain an international face of neutrality but covertly support US with intelligence, logistics and even bases once China is totally destroyed. Also, India was tasked to attack and over run Pakistan after the initial US strikes to make sure that Pakistan remains excluded in the main US-China war. It was a win-win situation for India. They could remain neutral in nuke exchange, got Pakistan destroyed through US and then walk over to capture the country which had been their dream for 67 years.
• It was time to talk to Pakistani President. US President picks up the phone and dials the Presidency in Islamabad. “Mr. President, this is President of United States. Our country is facing hostile action from People’s Republic of China. The Whole free world is siding with us in this war against evil. I want to know – Is Pakistan with us in this war or against us? Neutrality is not an option here, have I made myself clear here?” After a brief pause, the President of Pakistan replies “Mr. President, Pakistan is a peace loving country which is already being threatened by India. Pakistan has its own wars to fight and wishes to remain neutral in US-China war. But any act of hostile intent against us would be considered as an act of war and we would defend ourselves with all our might. Instead Pakistan would urge the United States to use their influence on India to refrain from initiating any hostilities”.
“Very well Mr. President”, replies the US President, “we appreciate your desire to stay neutral in this war. We will just make sure of that. India is our ally and we shall surely try to influence Indian decision to threaten Pakistan”….. And the line drops……………….
• Before the meeting was over orders were released to launch strikes against Pakistan and China within the next four hours. It was decided that since India would be available to neutralize Pakistan, Pakistan would be targeted by US using conventional weapons only to decapitate and incapacitate Pakistani leadership and critical defense and logistic infrastructures. Indian forces were given clearance by the US to cross the international border and mop up the remaining Pakistani forces after the initial US air and missile strike.
• Messages were sent to Moscow to stay neutral in this conflict or else Russia would also be attacked with nuclear weapons and annihilated. Russian President did not see any strategic advantage to join the hostilities and caved in and assured US of compliance.
Against Pakistan, the Central Command and Indian army was jointly given the task to use massive conventional means to destroy all military and economic war potential of Pakistan. While the US and NATO would use its superior Air Power and Satellite image processing to locate and detect possible deployment of Pakistan’s nuke assets, Indians would be tasked to secure the ground and to cripple the strategic and conventional forces of Pakistan. According to plan, the Pakistan air operation was to be concluded within 24 hours after first wave of strikes.
Against China, Pacific Command was to deploy massive nuke barrage using Air Force and ICBM’s to decisively crush any resistance potential in the Chinese, before the US ground forces with NBC protective battledresses could move in to secure the remains. Due to massive deployment of nuclear forces, the time to kill off Chinese resistance was estimated to be within 24 hours after second wave which was to be launched 12 hours after the first. The US troops would move into the Chinese mainland after 48 hours to cater for blast and fallout effects.
The attacks are launched simultaneously against Pakistan and China without warning, while the UN Security Council was discussing the crisis. US deployed the doctrine of pre-emptive strikes and took China and Pakistan by complete surprise. Indian (Independent battle groups) IBG’s rolled into Pakistan simultaneously at multiple points from Working boundary near Sialkot to Pannu Aqil in Sindh.
The first wave of 30 nuke capped Satellite guided deep ground penetrating precision ICBM’s and cruise missiles was launched against China at 900 hrs. China took the hits directly with most devastating effect. 30 million died instantly while 70 million within couple of hours due to radiation, heat, earthquake and blast effects. Over 300 million wounded went into state of shock and exposure and began their agonizing wait for death within 48 hours due to radiation over exposure, fallout effects and poisoned air. There was deathly silence over entire China as Satellite pictures only showed massive cloud and dust cover reducing visibility to zero. At 9:30 am in the morning, it was pitch darkness over China as sun had been totally blocked by black clouds of radioactive death. The satellite imagery was being disturbed by the dark clouds and battle damage assessment was not possible. The second strike of ICBM’s was delayed by another 8 hours till proper target assessment could be done. This delay proved fatal for the Americans later on.
At 900 hrs on same day, more than 400 American, NATO and Indian Stealth bombers and fighters launched a massive surprise air attack on Pakistan from US and Indian bases in the region. Pakistan had not prepared for such an eventuality and was caught unprepared. Pakistan Air force was severely handicapped as latest block52 F-16’s and their BVR missiles were programmed by the US not to engage western aircraft, making them almost defenseless under such scenario.
Since nuclear weapons were not to be deployed, 15,000 lbs Daisy cutters and massive 22,000 lbs conventional bomb was also used extensively. The attacks lasted all day non-stops in waves backed by precision strikes by cruise missiles. Targets included critical nerve points of Pakistan’s security and economic infrastructures.
• Karachi ports and Naval Shipyards.
• Steel Mill.
• Karachi city itself for chaos and destruction using daisy cutters.
• National Refinery and oil terminal.
• Naval battle ships and coastal defenses.
• Karachi airport.
• Railway line in interior Sindh.
• Hub Dam to destroy water supply of the city.
• All Corp HQ’s, JS HQ, GHQ, Naval HQ and PAF HQ.
• All fighter bases and airports of the country.
• All Dams including Tarbela, Mangla to destroy power in the country.
• POF installations around Pindi including HIT and other defense industries.
• All railway junctions.
• All strategic bridges over rivers.
• Massive bombardment of cities of Lahore, Multan, Islamabad, Pindi, Peshawar and Quetta including the industrial areas.
• All tele-communication centers and grids in cites and countryside.
• All field formations deployed along the eastern front against India.
• All known strategic force centers and missile batteries.
• Kahuta and NESCOM installations.
The damage caused in Pakistan by these massive bombing was catastrophic and resulted in:
• Complete destruction of all fighter bases and airports.
• Complete breakup of communication links between various Corps, HQ’s and field formations.
• Complete destruction of all naval forces and bases.
• No power in the entire country.
• No water in major cities, no gas and massive damage.
After day 1 of attack, US withdraw to evaluate the damage as Indian forces began rolling in crossing the border on various axes. Their targets include:
• Penetrate from Kashmir, cut off KKH and try to capture Muree heights and attack Islamabad.
• Penetrate from Lahore and capture the city.
• Penetrate from Narowal-Zafarwal sector and capture Sialkot.
• Attack Gujranwala.
• Penetrate from desert and capture Multan and Bahawalpur.
• Penetrate from Sindh, cut off national highway and attack Pannu Aqil and also penetrate from Khokrapar to move on to Hyderabad while Indian Navy would blockade and attack Karachi from sea.
• Foil attempts by Pakistan army to link up between various Corps and eliminate each Corpse by surrounding it around various Corp HQ’s on Pakistan’s eastern front.
• Prevent any possible launch of Pakistani missiles which might be deployed by isolated units. India using space sensing technology by US.
• Just like China, the entire Pakistan is under severe shock and almost incapacitated. Mercifully, though the loss is terrible in terms of material and resources, the human loss is only in tens of thousands and not millions due to conventional weapons deployed.
• US and India knew that they could not take out Pakistan’s all nuke assets and missiles in one strike. They instead focused on taking out the delivery mechanisms, PAF, command and control systems, military leadership and nerve points of the country to get enough time to make rapid ground progress by Indian forces to physically move in and first isolate and then capture the entire Pakistani government, armed forces and strategic assets. They never expected they would meet any resistance from Pakistani forces after the devastating first day strikes against both China and Pakistan by US/NATO/Indian air forces. Indian ground forces broke the borders at seven theatres and made rapid advances into Pakistani territory at the end of day 1. Small separated detachments of Pakistani forces put up fierce resistance but were either over run or had to withdraw under massive pressure. Victory seems inevitable and close for the invading forces.
Both US and India were dead wrong!!
China had survived the initial holocaust. 50 years of preparation for nuke blast and fallout protection and investment in civil defense programs had finally began to pay off. While the US Satellite satellites tried to peek through the black radioactive haze over China to do the damage assessment, Chinese fortified command and control bunkers in North West and South Central China readied to launch their own missile strike spread over the entire world targeting US interests. The Russian satellite technology had enabled the Chinese to relay “code red” message to all their overseas assets and nuke submarines in Asia pacific to fight independent wars against all enemy targets.
The Chinese embassy in Islamabad was able to relay the message about joint US-Indian attack on Pakistan and possible use of Indian bases by US forces. India became a hostile country and was immediately added into the target list by China’s strategic missile command.
In 2008, China, to the horror of US strategists, had acquired the star wars capability by successfully destroying a satellite in space from an earth launched missile. China had rapidly built on their capability and by 2010 had developed the capability to locate, target and destroy almost all satellites over their skies. If the US satellites had been taken out, US would be blind over China and its observation and spying systems as well as tracking GPS systems would work, making the missiles and fighter jets inaccurate and unguided over hostile skies.
China launched its first wave of attacks on US satellites, destroying all of them. Making it impossible for US to observe China anymore for battle damage assessment nor to monitor Chinese military movement. US were now officially blind to find a nuclear war. Chinese had even managed to explode an electromagnetic bomb or E-bomb device in space which had destroyed all other international GPS and tracking satellites over China making it impossible for any force to use Satellite guidance and tracking.
Chinese launched a second wave of 23 nuclear capped ICBM’s. With all Satellites over China destroyed, US were not able to detect the incoming missiles. Once over the American skies, it was too late even when the radars picked their trail. To the horror of tracking US radars, 18 high yield warheads were heading towards US mainland. The US missile defense shied was not capable to knock out all. At best it could only take out 3 incoming missiles. Rest was sure to make ground fall all across the United States. Chinese had been ruthlessly selective. The entire East to West Coast was about to see a doomsday. 4 low yield deep penetrating missiles were launched into India – hitting Delhi, Bangalore, Calcutta and Madras. 1 missile was launched against US bases in Australia.
1 missile was launched by the Chinese nuke sub-marine lurking into the Indian Ocean south of Sri Lanka. The missile was launched into the South China Sea between Taiwan, South Korea and Philippines in an innovative use of nuke power. A huge Tsunami tidal wave of over 200 meters rose from the sea and moved out at 300 mph from the epicenter in the Ocean and moved outwards taking the entire US carrier battle group with 200 war ships and over 40,000 troops to the bottom in less than five minutes. The huge wave then moved on to envelop Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Philippines in their entirely and even many parts of Indonesia and as far as north of Australia.
Out of 18 incoming Chinese missiles, 17 made ground contacts in US, unleashing a devastation even US was not prepared for. One landed in the deep Pacific Ocean 30 miles from San Francisco. The St Andrews fault line triggered due to shock waves causing the entire West coast to tremor under scale 8 earth quakes completely flattening every structure followed by a tidal wave which swept 150 miles inland washing the entire West coast into sea. The death toll from the first strikes was estimated to be around 40 million dead and over 100 million wounded, incapacitated or radiation exposed without any power, water or shelter. The earth quakes, tidal wave and subsequent fires had destroyed the entire power and communication structures. US were almost back into the Stone Age for all practical purposes.
With the destruction of entire US fleet and forces in Pacific and Asia, there was no launching of second wave of missiles on China as forces in Gulf were not armed with nuclear weapons neither had any Satellite support to launch any conventional missile or air attack. The war of missiles between China and US came to a brisk end on the day 2, both sides counting their losses and trying to evaluate the holocaust.
But half a million Indian troops and their armored divisions and artillery support which had entered into Pakistan had survived the nuclear attack on Indian cities. But they had lost all contacts with respective HQ’s and for all practical purpose; Indian army was on its own inside Pakistan without air cover and even satellite communication and imagery. India could not use nuclear missile against Pakistan for fear of destroying its own entire army. It is going to be a bloody fight for survival for Indians forces inside Pakistan in a conventional war fought on irregular and asymmetrical pattern on hostile grounds on exterior lines with vulnerable supplies and no C4I. After making early advances into Pakistani territory, Indian army went blind and the panic immediately starts to set in. The entire Indian command and control system was gone and there was no one to decide about the targets or give orders to launch.
The Indian naval forces in Indian Ocean off the coast of Bombay were blocking Karachi and preparing for a landing near the city. But the entire plan had been thrown into complete disarray after devastating Chinese strikes against US and Indian forces. The entire India was under a devastating radioactive cloud cover with initial casualties of over 100 million dead in blast effects and over 30 million dying due to exposure and radiation. There were no emergency services and the entire State infrastructure had collapse. The entire cabinet and the government have evaporated in the strike in Delhi. Effectively, India was a headless State with half a million army attacking major Pakistan cities deep inside Pakistan. This was the time for a Pakistani counter attack. Fortunately, Pakistan had prepared for such a scenario in 2010 and had a complete plan to counter attack.
The Pakistani response:
In 2010, Pakistan had launched an ambitious plan to counter such a scenario, which included:
• Re-writing the war doctrine so that each Corp could fight independent theatre wars without being in communication with other sectors of war or without being in contact with GHQ. Each Corp Commander was authorized to wage independent wars with even a command and control system at his disposal for launch of strategic weapons.
• Emphasizing on fortress defenses around major cities with massive survival capability to withstand not just conventional bombings but also great survival probability under nuke fallout scenario. Pakistan had initiated the biggest civil defense program in Asia in 2010 with underground shelters, compulsory military training of students and massive defense constructions around cities for fortress defenses.
• Even the countryside was dug into creation of massive defense constructions and under ground tunnels, bunkers and shelters for a sustained guerilla war and survival under nuke fallout effects.
• Creation of a strategic nuclear proof PAF and missile reserve in mountains of Baluchistan, hidden from the rest of the country with 150 fighters safely tucked away with complete nuke command and control systems and war heads. This reserve is now going to be the most invaluable assets for Pakistan to assure victory and survival.
• Ample food and fuel stocks were protected in under ground silos and mountain depots for the population and armed forces.
• Acquiring of nuke powered submarine with nuclear armed cruise missiles. This was deployed in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Yemen for secrecy and stealth action.
The Indian army detachments were neither in contact with each other nor with their HQ’s and were hopelessly stuck to fight independent wars within Pakistan. The Chinese nuclear strikes and elimination of the entire Indian government had demoralized it beyond recovery. But a segment insisted upon moving forward to capture Pakistani cities. In the end, fierce fighting breaks out between advancing Indian army and Pakistani defenders. The effects of nuclear fallout and radioactive clouds were now being felt over Pakistan as anyone exposed into the open was dangerously close to death. Pakistan army decided to wait out the period in their fortress defenses as Indian advancing army remained exposed in the open trenches and bunkers. With supply line cut and heavily exposed to radioactive clouds, the war fighting capability of Indians was rapidly reduced. But they pressed on and though they had made major strides inside Pakistan, even capturing Sialkot and Lahore and reaching at the gates of Hyderabad, they were being met with fierce resistance by the Pakistan army which had changed the fighting mode into unconventional irregular asymmetric warfare at these places and had also dug into the fortress defenses at all other cities. The Indian advance had stopped. Indian army detachments were now being surrounded.
Now Pakistan had to respond. No one in US, India or Israel knew about the strategic air reserve of Pakistan. It came as a total surprise. A squadron of F-16’s was launched to attack Indian navy at sea using anti-Ship missiles. Pakistani submarines had already attacked and sunk the Indian aircraft carrier and had effectively lifted off the Indian naval blockade. PAF planes and subs destroyed another 17 cruisers, destroyers and frigates.
The escaping US armada from the Gulf was attacked by both Pakistani and Chinese subs in Indian Ocean and PAF fighters from their secret base in Baluchistan.
After 1 week:
The actual hostilities between China and US remained only for couple of days. Both emerged totally devastated to continue any further. US announced total withdrawal from Asia and Gulf to the mainland, where civil wars had broken out between federating States. With no food or electricity for the people, Martial Law was declared in US as riots and anarchy took over. But that could not prevent the disintegration of USA. US as a civilization had almost ceased to exist.
China suffered terribly too but survived thanks to decades of investment in nuke survival capabilities. Chinese rapidly began the task of rebuilding their country.
India which scored major victories in the early days against Pakistan was devastated by Chinese strikes on the mainland and its half a million army was cut off deep inside Pakistan. Desperate for survival, without supplies and separated from each other, Indian commanders were thrown into panic as Pakistan army, tribal militants and local population surrounded and blocked all escape routes. The entire Indian army’s Independent battle groups (IBG’s), which had rolled into Pakistan, were decimated and most of their IBG equipment was captured intact by the Pakistani army. The fierce fighting was a bloodbath. No prisoners were taken.
There was chaos and anarchy in India as the country began to breakup on ethnic, tribal and regional lines. Naxalites took control of the “Red corridor” and declared independence. Sikhs rebelled in East Punjab and declared the State of Khalistan. Tamils seceded also. Seven sister States rebelled as well and declared their own free mini States.
Pakistan army re-deployed the captured Indian equipment and armored divisions along with its own armored divisions and moved into India. A fierce cavalry battle at Panipat decided the fate of India. Pakistan army moved on to capture the already devastated city of Delhi without further resistance. World hears the announcement of “Radio Pakistan Delhi” and India once again come under the Muslim rule.
On the spiritual plain, the faith in Allah and the belief in the saying of the Prophet that a Muslim army would once again capture India, Pakistani nation were galvanized with the emotional and religious zeal to fight the invading Indian army. Despite severe loses of men, material and territory, the morale and faith remained unshakable and a fiercely proud nation gelled together to fight back for its dignity and honor and reclaimed its glory.
On a more physical level, Pakistan survived this war due to wisdom and foresight of its leadership which had foreseen such an eventuality back in 2010. The survival capability of the nation under nuclear environment, the decentralization of the armed forces into various commands, the revised military doctrine which allowed separate unconventional asymmetrical wars against multiple nations, creation of strategic PAF and missile reserves and force projection capability beyond 3000 km and security of food and fuel resources even under siege conditions allowed Pakistan to stage a remarkable comeback when all the enemies had written it off. Pakistan still paid a heavy price – with 10 million dead and over 20 million wounded and sick. But the country survived, regrouped, re-organized, re-captured and expanded its territory into former India and then, by 2018, rose to become the global power leading the Muslim world into a collective security and political alliance called United States of Islam!!