Tuesday, April 16, 2013

BrassTacks Threat Analysis 14th April 2013

BrassTacks Threat Analysis:

As such, it is still not clear if the elections would be held on May 11th. It is all in thin air even now. The assassination of the political candidates and violence has choked the campaigns in many parts of the country. Lahore high court is already contemplating delaying the polls. The existing caretaker government is at war with army anyways. Anything can snap.

The Baluchistan separatists are using all axis – political and military – to gain clout in the province. Their first choice would be to remove all political opposition, security forces and government writ from the province and then go for the elections for a clean sweep and then declaring a unilateral declaration of Independence. Failing to do that, the option of an armed struggle is always there for them. What is incredible is that the separatists are not making any bones about it. Rebellion is already announced while the elections commission and the Chief Justice fail to take notice. All terrorists are being invited by the government to take part in the elections. All terrorism charges have been dropped and their crimes forgiven without taking any assurance in return for being loyal to the state. This is a serious plot unfolding.

The Baluchistan liberation army has created such an anarchy that even the foreign observers have refused to go to these provinces for security reasons. Government of Pakistan is expected to hold elections in war zones under these chaotic conditions.

Army is realizing the crisis and is watching the developments with great concern. The entire political process, elections and war have been handed over to the army now, stretching the force to beyond its extreme limits. With only less than a month to the elections, the challenge is indeed severe.

It is going to be security chaos in the country or the provocation by the courts and the political parties – which would cause the trigger to delay the elections or army to intervene? We don’t know yet, but anything is possible for now.

So, we wait. Khair InshAllah

Armed struggle termed premature: Mengal sees attempts to oust BNP from democratic process From the Newspaper |   | 2 days ago

President of the BNP-M, Sardar Akhtar Mengal, has apprised Governor Zulfiqar Ali Magsi about difficulties being faced by his party’s candidates in launching their election campaigns.
QUETTA, April 13: President of the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M), Sardar Akhtar Mengal, has apprised Governor Zulfiqar Ali Magsi about difficulties being faced by his party’s candidates in launching their election campaigns and said the establishment wanted to keep the party away from the polls.
Later, talking to the media, he said a party representing secessionists was creating hurdles in the BNP-M’s democratic struggle for rights and added: “Presently the situation is not conducive for achieving [Baloch] national rights through armed struggle.”
The governor called on Mr Mengal at his residence here on Saturday. They discussed political situation of Balochistan in the backdrop of preparations for May 11 elections.
Mr Magsi praised the BNP-M’s decision of taking part in the elections.


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