Monday, January 7, 2013

BrassTacks -- Pakistan’s National Security Analysis -- for those who are not deaf, dumb and blind !!

Taking advantage of the anarchy, chaos, confusion and weakest leadership in Pakistan, Indian tried to change the geography of the Line of Control on the Kashmir front. A short, fierce battle ensued but Indians failed and were pushed back though the environment in the area remains tense. For many months now, Indians have been focusing on supporting the insurgencies, TTP and BLA against Pakistan and had not been directly engaging Pakistan army on the eastern sector. This attempt by the Indians is a feeler to test the waters and the preparedness of Pak army. In the coming months, Indians will be conducting more or such probing attacks as the situation within Pakistan is expected to get more and more chaotic.
With the political anarchy spreading across the entire country, the levels of violence, terrorism, urban insurgency and chaos is also rising exponentially. This week also, we saw insane levels of violence in every corner of the country. There is definitely urgency within the insurgents to exploit the political and judicial anarchy.
Security forces are fighting back with all the resources in a war which is a high intensity conflict in an urban environment. From jet fighters to special operations by covert means, all axis of force is being deployed.

There is no doubt that the CIA backed TTP has been badly bruised and pushed back into Afghanistan after a long bloody slog by the Pakistan army. Now the insurgent group is weakened, isolated, dislocated and suing for peace to gain time to regroup. Signing any peace deals with the dreaded terrorist group when they are at their weakest would be a catastrophic military blunder and army is cautioning the government not to rush into any offer by the militants.

But the mission of Pakistan army has been made near to impossible by direct CIA involvement to destroy any pro-Pakistan assets in the region to fight the TTP. There is absolutely no doubt now that CIA is fighting Pakistan through the proxies of TTP and BLA and is actively eliminating all those tribals who sign peace deals with Pakistan or show their willingness to fight the TTP. This treacherous betrayal by the CIA is stil NOT acknowledged at the official levels though everyone knows about it at all levels. The secretary defense Lt General Asif Yasin Malik had even mentioned this last week.

This week, CIA eliminated a strong pro-Pakistan local militant commander, Mullah Nazeer, who had earlier survived an assassinating attempt by the TTP. Once TTP failed, CIA sent in a drone to finish the job. In another attack, another pro-Pakistan commander belonging to Hafiz Gul Bahadur group was targeted and eliminated. It is actually that dirty war where CIA is directly fighting Pakistan but the government and the army leadership still remains silent.


While the 4th and 5th generation wars rage within Pakistan, the politicians remains busy in petty squabbles, power grabbing, turf wars and preparing for elections, creating more and more anarchy every day. There is absolutely no concern for the national security, economic collapse or the political or ideological vision. It is a fish market with a bloody touch. MQM and the new entrant Dr. Tahir ul Qadri are threatening a “drone attack” on Pakistan within the next week and turning Islamabad into another Tehreer square.
The ruling PPP’s alliance with other parties is now in a chaos also with all other parties flexing their muscles and looking for best opportunities to grab more power and wealth. Downright dirty it is. Zardari is genuinely concerned now as the date of the “long march” approaches.

Meanwhile, the common citizens and the society suffer staggeringly as the government destroys the last remnants of the state and the economy. It is an artificially created crisis of gas to protect and “bless” the cartels in power to make windfall profits through imports of oil.

As the “last straw” on the camel’s back, the government plans to deploy 150,000 troops for election duties, drawing the already over stretched army from counter insurgency operations and defense of the country on the East. Drawing such a huge number of troops from the strategic reserves or from the active duty troops would mean depleting the national defense to dangerous levels. For now, Pakistan army is going along the PPP regime’s plans but in our assessment this is a fatal mistake which will have staggeringly high cost later on.

The next two weeks would be very critical and decisive in the country. On January 14th, “tehreer square” styled sit in is planned in Islamabad by “millions” of followers of Altaf Hussian and Tahir ul Qadri – the gangster and the priest have joined hands in a most bizarre alliance which is threatening not just the remains of the government but also the entire decayed political system!

If the march goes ahead, then the field would be open for all forces to intervene. The terrorists would have the sitting ducks to target. The government would deploy its resources to stop the marchers from reaching the parliament. Army would watch in silence with troops ready close by for any intervention if needed.

We would advice no traveling even within Islamabad after 12th January. The game is wide open now but the government and the judiciary as well as the media and the army remains focused on the elections for now or the spoilers who have come from outside to change the rules of the game. The national security and the 4th and 5th generation war is definitely not the priority of any of the power brokers for now. That is the real tragedy.

Two attacks leave 12 dead: ‘Good Taliban’ Maulvi Nazir killed by drone

PESHAWAR / MIRAMSHAH, Jan 3: Militant ‘commander’ Maulvi Nazir was among 12 people killed in two drone attacks, one in South Waziristan and the other in the North on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
According to a security official, Maulvi Nazir, 39, perceived to be pro-government because he had signed a peace deal with the authorities in 2007, was killed along with his five guards when a missile hit his vehicle while he was going to Wana from Birmal in South Waziristan on Wednesday night.
Maulvi Nazir’s key aide Rata Khan was among the other militants killed when the vehicle was attacked near Angoor Adda on the Afghan border, the official said.

In North Waziristan, six militants, a close associate of the banned Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan’s chief Hakimullah Mehsud among them, were killed in a drone attack in Mirali tehsil on Thursday.
According to sources, unmanned aircraft fired two missiles at about 9am on a car carrying Shah Faisal and other militants in Mubarak Shahi, some 20km east of Miramshah. Two others killed in the attack were identified as Israr and Lateef.

Maulvi Nazir had survived a suicide bombing in November. The TTP, the umbrella organisation of Pakistani militant groups, denied its involvement, but Nazir, under pressure from the government, ordered the expulsion of Mehsud tribesmen from Wana. The TTP leadership comes from the Mehsud tribe.

He had entered into a peace agreement with the government after his group expelled militants of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, led then by Tahir Uldashev, in 2007 from the area.
Nazir’s fighters avoided attacking government and security forces’ installations in the tribal region and cooperated with the local administration, an official said.

He had survived two drone strikes in the past and two attempts to assassinate him through roadside bombings by local militant leaders who wanted to settle score with him for expelling them for their support to Uzbek militants. His younger brother, Hazrat Omar, had also been killed in a drone attack.
His death will certainly not please the authorities who have been relying on pro-government militant leaders to keep anti-state elements at bay and it could also spell trouble for the government if the TTP or affiliated militants try to return to the region.
But the militant leader from Ahmadzai Wazir tribe regularly sent out fighters to fight the US-led coalition forces in Afghanistan.

SHELLING: Helicopter gunships pounded several areas in North Waziristan tribal agency on Thursday, killing three people and injuring four others.

Dozens of families fled the area after several houses were damaged by shelling on Machas camp.
The administration imposed a curfew in the region for the second day and launched a search operation after a security man and a civilian were killed and four personnel injured in a roadside bomb attack on a vehicle of the Frontier Works Organisation.
Several houses were destroyed in the shelling by helicopters in areas where militants were suspected to be hiding. The victims included a woman.

Local tribal elders tried to negotiate with the authorities but the administration rejected their move.

Agencies add: The funeral of Nazir and his associates was held in Angoor Adda and markets and shops remained closed.

Residents in Angoor Adda and Wana said mosque loudspeakers were used to announce Nazir’s death. A local man, Ajaz Khan, said over 5,000 people attended the funeral. Ahmed Yar, who attended the funeral, said Nazir’s body was badly burnt and his face unrecognisable.
Officials said an unmanned US aircraft fired two missiles at his vehicle in the Sar Kanda area and his two senior deputies were among those killed along with him.

The attack took place at about 10.35pm on Wednesday, an official said.
Another official said Nazir was attacked as he prepared to swap vehicles after his pick-up developed a mechanical fault.

Maulvi Nazir was understood to be close to the Al Qaeda-linked Haqqani network, a faction of the Afghan Taliban.He was injured in the suicide attack in South Waziristan on Nov 29 when he was arriving at an office where he used to meet local people and hear their complaints.
Security officials were locked in talks to assess the impact of Nazir’s death. “There will be a setback in a way. He was one of those who were keeping his area under effective control and preventing the TTP from operating there,” an official said.

Some officials said eight people had been killed along with Nazir.
The military is believed to have struck a non-aggression pact with Nazir ahead of its 2009 operation against militants in South Waziristan.

He outraged many Pakistanis in June when he announced that he would not allow any polio vaccinations in territory under his control until the US stopped drone attacks in the region.
Nazir had property in both Pakistan and Afghanistan. He earlier used to be a member of the Hizb-i-Islami, an Afghan militant group.

Nazir’s group quickly appointed his close aide Bawal Khan as a replacement, according to one of his aides. But a Reuters report named the successor as Salahuddin Ayubi.


Arslan Rana said...

i like your article its interesting and wonderful as well as good collection.

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