Saturday, January 12, 2013

Now analyze the possibilities which can happen during the March.

Now analyze the possibilities which can happen during the March. It has now become a matter of honor and prestige for MQ to carry on with the March. Any withdrawal at this stage would destroy their image and credibility fatally. But now, it is a high risk strategy with many dead ends.

There can be many options.

1. The March reaches Islamabad, makes a strong sit-in and presents its own caretaker government. The problem is then what? How will the existing government, judiciary and army react to a street demand under public pressure? It is too open ended for a smooth transfer and would sure result in total anarchy in Islamabad. The government wont go down without a fight and SC and army would find it next to impossible to accept this street caretaker as the legitimate government. Too dangerous.

2. The March does not reach Islamabad and is blocked and dispersed on its way, creating multiple smaller street battle scenes across all Punjab and around Islamabad. This again would create anarchy but would not destroy the government. Still a dangerous option.

3. The March takes place but is exploited by the terrorists and shock forces to attack army and government installations in Islamabad and thus create a dangerous urban anarchy, drawing security forces and Police into an open confrontation with the crowd. A few casualties within the crowd and the situation would go totally out of hand. Army would wait for some time to see the intensity of the events, just as it did after Benazir's murder, and then would be forced to move in with force -- would either impose martial law or impose curfew, that depends upon the intention of the army leadership and the level of the violence. Again, a high risk dangerous possibility.

4. The March reach Islamabad, make a sit in, remains peaceful but fails to rattle the government and starts to disperse and dissipate under extremes of weather and fatigue. Such huge crowds cannot make a very long stand in this very harsh weather. Government is hoping this actually. If the crowd gets small enough for the government to handle, they may then move with force to disperse it and then would launch its own attack on MQ and its leadership with arrests, cases and jails.

In all the 4 options, one thing is common -- they would create dangerous anarchy and confusion in Islamabad in these times when Pakistan is at war from all axis. Already, Karachi, Quetta, Peshawar is burning. A chaos in Islamabad would be fatal for Pakistan at a time when enemies are waiting with their guns loaded. Our reports suggest that MQM's shock forces would be present in the crowd and would draw the Police against the crowd. Since MQM has announced publicly that they are not participating, the blame for any violence would also not be blamed on them. Same is true for TTP also which would try to exploit this moment.

We are concerned. very concerned. Ya Allah Khair.


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